Now that results are in, here are some thoughts I had. As usual, the polling is meant to be (somewhat) objective but my opinions here are just my opinions — if you have your own thoughts, please feel free to share!
For some context, here’s the exact distribution of responses for each question.
Approval ratings are a mixed bag, but sag overall.
In their campaign, Drew Durrnil promised to ‘continue what Henn started,’ but these approval ratings suggest that may have been easier said than done. The administration as a whole is sitting with an approval rating of 3.05, while Drew Durrnil has a personal approval rating of 2.33, both of which are the lowest scores recorded in their categories since this recent run of polls began in July 2023.
| Date |
Administration |
Prime Minister |
Responses |
| July 2023 |
3.48 |
3.48 |
25 |
| October 2023 |
4.10 |
4.05 |
20 |
| December 2023 |
3.71 |
4.36 |
14 |
| January 2023 |
3.27 |
3.45 |
22 |
| March 2024 |
3.05 |
2.33 |
21 |
To me, an approval rating of 2.33 would be a particular cause for concern. It’s a steep drop from Drew’s approval ratings of 4.23 in December 2023 (n = 13) and 3.95 in January 2024 (n = 21) as Minister of Defense last term, and it’s the lowest score recorded in any question on these polls using the five-point rating scale. For context, the previous lowest score, from July 2023, was an approval rating of 2.42 for that administration’s handling of events with TNP. I think it’s safe to say it’s not the idea company to be in if the goal is to keep the administration running smoothly.
That said, approval ratings aren’t uniformly down across the board. Penguin enjoys a solid rating of 4.3, with interviews, book readings, recipes, and an upcoming game day (though that last one was announced after these polls closed). ProfessorHenn, meanwhile, enjoys a solid 4.14 of their own, with the recent establishment of embassies with Alcris and The Region That Has No Big Banks. Every appointed minister, in fact, currently enjoys a personal approval rating higher than the administration as a whole and than the Prime Minister. In fairness, it’s not the first time that the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has lagged behind those of their ministers — the same was true at the end of Henn’s last term — but while it’s easy to say that Prime Ministers are generally held to high expectations when it comes to approval ratings, a score like 2.33 indicating net disapproval has been rare to see.
What does a Minister of Roleplay even do?
On paper, Flaming’s approval rating of 3.18 looks respectable, if not necessarily exemplary, but I think there’s another dimension to this in the number of responses. In questions about citizens’ approval of the Minister of Roleplay, the number of responses has consistently lagged behind other questions — including, for instance, questions about citizens’ approval of the administration as a whole.
| Date |
Administration Approval Responses |
Minister of Roleplay Approval Responses |
| July 2023 |
25 |
N/A |
| October 2023 |
20 |
17 |
| December 2023 |
14 |
12 |
| January 2023 |
22 |
N/A |
| March 2024 |
21 |
17 |
It’s worth noting that this effect isn’t entirely because a question about approval of the administration is usually asked first — the questions after the Minister of Roleplay question have also received more responses in each of these polls. Are some respondents skipping the Minister of Roleplay question as their way of abstaining? Do they feel they don’t understand what the minister is doing? Do they feel they aren’t involved enough in the roleplay community to judge? I can only speculate — but all of this also tracks with roleplay being ranked last (though sometimes jointly) in every question so far about what the Cabinet’s priorities should be. I do think the tentativity on display in these response numbers is a sign that the Minister of Roleplay position isn’t well-established in the Cabinet as a peer among equals, or at least isn’t viewed as well-established by citizens.
The administration’s priorities seem responsive, but new areas emerge.
In their campaign, Drew noted that culture and events had ranked highest on the most recent poll about what the priorities, and on that front, it seem this administration has responded. As noted earlier, Penguin enjoys a solid 4.3 approval rating as Minister of Culture, while Sir Zanny’s 3.68 as Minister of On-Site Events is not bad — though interestingly, just 4 out of 20 respondents chose on-site activities as a priority this time, as perhaps opposed to culture and events more generally. Culture and events very much remains a highly-ranked priority, with 10 out of 20 respondents choosing it, but it also seems there is some general degree of satisfaction among citizens with regards to this administration’s effort in this area, particularly so with Penguin.
Other priorities, however, remain. Engagement, integration, and foreign affairs remain highly ranked, with engagement narrowly taking the top spot this time. In each of the last three poll questions about the administration’s priorities, including this one — which have all allowed respondents to select as few or many priorities as they wish — neither integration nor foreign affairs have ever dipped below 50%.
This marked the first poll in which World Assembly affairs appeared as an option in the priority question; it’s probably overdue as an option, considering the OWL has existed this entire time, but it’s here now. It came in with solid support on its debut, with 9 out of 20 respondents choosing it as a priority, putting it neck and neck with the likes of engagement, culture and events, foreign affairs, and integration. All of this, of course, is taking place as questions remain about the Cabinet’s approach to World Assembly matters this term.
I’ve seen worse…
I think it’s easy to look at these poll results and focus on the numbers that really stand out — Drew’s 2.33 rating compared with Penguin’s 4.3, Henn’s 4.14, and to an extent Sir Zanny’s 3.68 — and see a narrative of individual ministers taking charge, to positive public reception, amidst unclear leadership and direction from the Prime Minister. But if I was in Drew’s shoes and eyeing a reelection campaign, honestly, I’ve seen worse. There is, I think, certainly some public discontent brewing which will take real effort to dissuade, but most things a Prime Minister wants accomplished take real effort. Perhaps, for Drew, it’s just a matter of exerting that effort in the right way. In their farewell address, Henn encouraged South Pacificans to “[g]ive [Drew] the power and the trust to do what he must” — and, if the glass is half full, then there’s still half the term left to do it.
