Concluding Approval Polling: Terms Ending on August 1, 2024

[Pronoun]

The end of the current Prime Minister and Delegate terms are around the corner, and declarations in the next round of elections are currently open. How are we feeling about this past term?

Polls are open to citizens. Responses to these polls are fully anonymous; only the overall results will be visible.

What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @Griffindor as Delegate this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with Prime Minister @Penguin’s administration this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @Penguin as Prime Minister this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @ProfessorHenn as Deputy Prime Minister this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @ProfessorHenn as Minister of Foreign Affairs this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @Silva as Minister of Culture this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @Vrigny as Minister of Defense this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with @lordnwahs as Director of the Office of World Assembly Legislation this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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What is your overall level of approval or disapproval with Fluffy the Three-Headed Dog and Noodle the Basilisk as Craziest Person this term? (5 = Highly Approve; 1 = Highly Disapprove)

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Which issues do you feel should be a priority for the next Cabinet? (select as few or as many as you’d like)

• Culture and Events
• On-Site Activities
• Defense
• Integration
• World Assembly Affairs
• Roleplay
• Foreign Affairs
• Other (reply or message me)

Who would you like to see run for Delegate or Prime Minister or serve in the next Cabinet? Let us know here!

• I filled out the survey!

[Pronoun]

And the results are in!

Thank you again!

In my write-up about the last poll results, I thanked everyone who participated on setting a new record for poll participation. I’m happy to report we set a new record again this time! It’s really great to see folks participate in polls like these, so thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts — and don’t forget to turn out to the polls for the real election in a few days!

Just let me see the data

Like last time, the data from these polls as well as previous polling data is available in this spreadsheet if you’d like to play around yourself. Here are a couple charts to summarize the results this time.

Table Format (for screen readers, etc.)

Position	Officeholder	Responses	Average	1	2	3	4	5
Delegate	Griffindor	28	4.25	0	1	4	10	13
Administration	N/A	26	3.69	0	2	6	16	2
Prime Minister	Penguin	27	3.00	2	5	13	5	2
Deputy Prime Minister	ProfessorHenn	26	3.42	0	4	12	5	5
Minister of Foreign Affairs	ProfessorHenn	27	3.85	0	0	10	11	6
Minister of Culture	Silva	27	4.26	1	1	4	5	16
Minister of Defense	Vrigny	27	4.26	0	0	5	10	12
OWL Director	lordnwahs	26	4.73	0	0	1	5	20

Okay, I think the Prime Minister does lag behind

Last time, in the heading of this section, I asked, “the Prime Minister lags behind… but does she really?” I think this poll makes it clearer that she does. But wait! Her approval rating is a flat 3.00! Isn’t that a perfectly neutral rating, neither good nor bad?

In theory, sure. I think the polls are probably more accurate if we all vote with that in mind. But the average approval rating across all polls with this format is 3.76, with a standard deviation of 0.49, so a rating of 3.00 is actually around 1.5 standard deviations below the mean. It’s not clear that approval ratings are actually normally distributed, but if we plot the distribution, I think it’s pretty clear that a rating of 3 is definitely on the tail end of typical polling averages:

Maybe we’re too nice to rate people too low, but of course, there are certainly other explanations here. Maybe we just tend to have a net positive view of our government officials! But I do think it’s clear that, however you feel about Penguin’s performance as Prime Minister, it would be accurate to say she lags behind other officials in this poll.

Looking at the historical trends in Prime Minister approval polling, I think it’s reasonable to say the same in comparison to other Prime Ministers as well:

To be clear, it’s not a terrible rating by any means, and I was a little conflicted in writing this because ProfessorHenn bookened their time as Prime Minister (well, not actually, just bookended the available pools) with ratings of 3.48 and 3.45, so Penguin’s 3.00 average this time doesn’t feel far off. And yet, the fact that it’s the lowest Prime Minister approval rating recorded other than Drew’s 2.33 in March 2024 — when they were just a couple weeks away from a recall motion and their resignation — is definitely not a good sign. If 3.45 is not that far from 3.00, then 2.33 isn’t that far away either.

The administration leads, without the Prime Minister

The other thing I notice, looking at these polls, is that once again Penguin’s approval rating, and ProfessorHenn’s approval rating as Deputy Prime Minister, trail behind the administration as a whole, while each minister with portfolio (including Henn as Minister of Foreign Affairs) has a higher rating. It’s the same story as the mid-term poll, except the gap has actually widened slightly. Very possibly, it’s too small a difference to be significant, but the ministers with portfolio average a rating of 4.28 this time, 0.59 points higher than the administration’s approval rating; at the mid-term poll, the difference was just 0.43 points.

Mid-term euphoria?

It’s also interesting to me that almost everyone’s approval ratings fell this time:

Position	Change
Administration	▼ –0.23
Prime Minister	▼ –0.56
Deputy Prime Minister	▼ –0.32
Minister of Foreign Affairs	▼ –0.15
Minister of Culture	▼ –0.14
Minister of Defense	▲ +0.09
OWL Director	▼ –0.08

Apparently Vrigny had some secret sauce that nobody else had (and didn’t share it with their Cabinet colleagues, how rude…), but honestly, I don’t really know how to explain this one. My best guess is that the end of the term and the upcoming election can spark a more critical look at this past term with an eye on improvements in the upcoming one, while mid-term polling can produce generally positive numbers without that impetus.

But I have to admit it feels a little counterintuitive. Henn, for example, introduced a new MDT with Europeia, which passed in the Assembly with zero votes against… and saw their approval rating fall. Or even with Penguin, who saw the biggest decline with her approval rating falling 0.56 points since the mid-term poll, I don’t know if I can point to anything specific that she’s done differently in the past month.

One could argue that a lack of change can also be a downside; I did note in my last write-up that there were some warning signs for Penguin, after all. But I haven’t felt like LordNwahs or Silva changed that much either, and their approval ratings didn’t suggest much reason to change… and yet their ratings also fell.

Oh, I almost forgot. Fluffy the Three-Headed Dog and Noodle the Basilisk saw their approval rating as Craziest Person fall by 1.02 points, by far the largest drop. That one really has me stumped!

Ten 0.07 points for Griffindor!

Sorry, I spent way too long trying to think of an interesting heading and ended up with, like, the first search result on knowyourmeme.com for “Gryffindor.” So moving on quickly — Griffindor’s approval rating as Delegate remains solid, rising from 4.18 in January at the ned of their last term, to 4.25 today. It definitely seems like they’re steering a steady ship from the delegacy! Admittedly, I’d like to write more analysis here, but I don’t know if Griffindor has really done anything super flashy or attention-grabbing as Delegate. Perhaps, rather, they do the ‘simple’ things well. I put ‘simple’ in quotes because endotarting or putting out biweekly telegrams aren’t always easy to keep up consistently, especially over a six-month term, but it seems like we’re pretty happy overall with Griffindor’s performance.

What comes next?

Looking ahead, here are the responses to the open-ended questions. (By the way, here’s a free tip: you can lower the chances I miscount your suggestions by spelling their names correctly!)

Who would you like to see run for Delegate?

• Griffindor: 7
• Henn: 5
• Penguin: 3
• Amerion: 2
• Anjo: 2
• Land Without Shrimp: 1

Who would you like to see run for Prime Minister?

• LordNwahs: 5
• ProfessorHenn: 5
• Pronoun: 3
• Vrigny: 3
• Concrete Slab: 2
• Silva: 2
• Sir Zanny: 2
• The Lombard League: 2
• xshotss: 2
• Kris: 1
• No One (7 Trees): 1
• Pencil Sharpeners: 1
• Penguin: 1

(I swear if I have to clarify what I mean by “No One” every time…)

Who would you like to see in the next Cabinet?

• Vrigny: 6
• Silva: 5
• LordNwahs: 4
• Pronoun: 4
• Concrete Slab: 3
• HumanSanity: 2
• No One (7 Trees): 2
• The Lombard League: 2
• Belschaft: 1
• Cryo: 1
• Drew: 1
• Flaming: 1
• Penguin: 1
• Qwert: 1
• Sir Zanny: 1
• Welly: 2
• xshotss: 2

What minister positions would you like to see in the next Cabinet?

• Defense: 6
• Foreign Affairs: 6
• OWL/World Assembly: 6
• Culture: 4
• Integration: 3
• Engagement: 1
• Engagement/integration: 1
• Media: 1
• Regional Affairs: 1
• Roleplay: 1

Do you have any other comments to share?

Actual comments:

• No need for a deputy PM

Other comments:

• Who else feels burned by the last question after this one? Obviously, cake is superior
• Ice cream is good. I endorse ice cream - Nwahs
• happy early birthday slab-drew
• You know what I like a lot more than arguing about desserts? My TEDx talk where I talk about this new Lamborghini here. In fact, I’m a lot more proud about these 7 new Hollywood Hills that I had to get installed to hold 2000 new Lamborghinis. It’s like what the Buffet Warren billionaire says, “The more you earn, the more you drive up here in the Hollywood Hills.”

Cake or pie?

• Definitely ice cream: 4
• Ice cream: 2
• Is this seriously still funny to you??? (but ice cream): 2
• do u have any friends (but still ice cream): 2

(So basically 100% ice cream!)

Feel free to chime in!

As usual, feel free to share your own thoughts. I write these because the numbers are interesting to me, but by no means do I mean to make myself the only ‘polls guy’ — I don’t just do these polls just for my own sake; hopefully, they can also be thought-provoking for all of us and start some discussions.

[lordnwahs]

Thanks for doing these polls Pronoun, from one ice-cream enjoyer to another.

[ProfessorHenn]

5 and 5 support for me running for PM and Delegate??* So much for a coin toss. . .

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Thanks for running these polls. I really appreciate them being done by someone not in government, as it is easily the best demonstration of “just do the shit you want to do” we have in TSP’s politics.

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*I am also equally impressed that there is no one wanting me in Cabinet. Probably cause they expect me to be in one or the other position? Who’s to say. . .

[Silva]

A 1 rating from somebody again? That is, to say the least, interesting?

Well, I would like to thank you for these polls and the analysis, they are really good! I would like to say that I am always open to constructive criticism, so feel free to comment on my work as Minister.

[North]

@ProfessorHenn

*I am also equally impressed that there is no one wanting me in Cabinet. Probably cause they expect me to be in one or the other position? Who’s to say. . .

Take that as a sign that you should run for delegate!

@Silva

Well, I would like to thank you for these polls and the analysis, they are really good! I would like to say that I am always open to constructive criticism, so feel free to comment on my work as Minister.

You’ve done very well as our MoC, I hope to see you on the next cabinet!

[Vrigny]

I do find pretty interesting the large rise of Defense as a priority; while it’s always been a relatively popular or requested priority, I’m happy to say that 50% of the voters in the poll regard Defense as one of their priorities now. I would consider it a consequence of our new active and skillful defenders joining the political spectrum in TSP, but I’m still happy to see that TSP regards R/D as one of its main activities.

It also makes me happy to see that I’m the most requested person to be part of the next Cabinet. This is interesting, considering that my approval as among the other Cabinet members wasn’t the highest, but it still brought a smile to my face. I had already pretty much decided that I wouldn’t be running as MoD for a consecutive second term, since I consider that a new MoD would bring new ideas I wouldn’t have thought about beforehand, and a new minister would simply be more ambitious than one that’s already relatively content with their work so far. However, I still don’t know if I’ll consider becoming another sort of minister next term, I’m still thinking about that.

Thanks Pronoun, for the polling effort. Without these, we wouldn’t be able to know what’s really going on and what people think about our democracy and Coalition!