American Politics: Trump 2.0

American Politics Discussion :us:

It’s over, folks. Donald Trump is returning to the White House. And he plans to be ten times more effective and efficient than his first go around.

Edition 1: It's Election Time

Whether you like it or not, election season is now in full swing. Nominees have been finalized and their running mates have been tapped. Pollsters are collecting data, pundits are scouring through said data, candidates are campaigning, and voters are deciding what their ballots will look like come November.

So yes, it’s that time of the year again. Your inbox probably feels cluttered: it’s actively being littered by political groups and campaigns asking for $15. It’s in fact not the most wonderful time of the year but it surely is an interesting one.

Here is some more info about the upcoming elections:

President

It’s Vice President Kamala Harris versus former President Donald Trump.

The race made a series of dramatic turns in July: Trump narrowly survived a harrowing assassination attempt just days before incumbent commander-in-chief Joe Biden stepped aside and passed the torch to Harris.

Before Biden stepped aside, the election map was not looking good for Democrats. Voters were concerned with Biden’s age and declining mental state. Some were angered by rising prices and some by his handling of diplomatic issues in the Middle East. On the other hand, Trump was rising in the polls by capitalizing on the anger with the economy. In June, the two nominees met for a debate. It was an absolute disaster. Biden’s aging was on prime display.

Now it’s July. Biden had been pressured to step aside for weeks. Then, unexpectedly, a bullet grazed Trump’s ear at a Pennsylvania rally. He survived. The assasination attempt galvanized his supporters and made Trump himself look like a hero.

Days later, Trump selects his running mate. It’s Ohio senator JD Vance. The bearded-Ohioan made his name through the book industry, where he is known for inking Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir of his childhood. Before the Trump presidency (around the time his book was published), Vance was a harsh critic of Trump, even calling him “America’s Hitler.” He became an instant favorite of liberals, though wasn’t too popular among Appalachians (the region that raised him that he also trashes in his memoir). Two years ago, Vance was tapped to run for U.S. Senate in Ohio and immediately flip-flopped to become one of Trump’s most fervent cheerleaders. It did him good—now he’s the nominee for vice president with the grand old party, hoping to reach one of the most-coveted yet unimportant offices in politics: the vice presidency.

Momentum for Trump was high.

Days after Vance was announced as VP, Biden announces he’ll be stepping aside in a primetime address to the nation. Kamala Harris rose to prominence as Biden’s successor. The former U.S. Senator and prosecutor reinvigorated the Democratic base, making crucial gains with Black voters (an historically important Democratic constituency that had gone lukewarm on Biden). The race felt completely different.

Two weeks later, Harris tapped little-known Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The energetic Walz became an immediate favorite among the Democratic establishment—the Nebraska native and Minnesota transplant was the perfect candidate to court moderate voters. Walz gave off the aura of a passionate Midwestern dad (a great characteristic to balance Harris’ San Francisco and “elite” look). The race had certainly changed.

And now we’re here. So to cap this long (and probably boring) chunk of writing, here’s my prediction map for election night.

Senate

The Senate is the upper body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. There are two Senators from each state (regardless of size or population). Senators are elected to six-year terms.

The Senate map is not looking good for Democrats. They’ll have to defend a number of the regular toss-up seats alongside three other ones which are in states Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.

Let’s take a look:

Races to watch:

West Virginia: This ruby-red state has an open senatorial seat, and it’ll very likely flip to Republican control. Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin passed on reelection. Jim Justice, the state’s Republican governor, will likely cruise to a win (alongside his bulldog companion) against Wheeling mayor and Democratic nominee Glenn Elliott. I’m saying (very) Likely Republican.

Ohio: This race will be extremely challenging for Democrats. Ohio has trended conservative over the past few years. JD Vance, as the Republican veep pick, will probably drive out turnout for conservative causes in the Rust Belt state. Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is popular among his Ohioan peers, but it may not be enough. Let’s see if he can outshine his businessman opponent of Bernie Moreno by embracing the usual pro-worker and pro-union message that always works in Ohio. I’m calling Toss-Up.

Nevada: Incumbent Jacky Rosen will face U.S. Army veteran and entrepreneur Sam Brown. Brown, who received the Purple Heart award for his military service, has a solid chance to unseat Rosen as Nevada slowly trends towards the Republican side. Harry Reid’s Democratic legacy in Nevada is over and the state is starting enjoy more conservative stances on policy. I’m saying toss-up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this leans Republican. We’ll see.

Montana: The state has traditionally favored conservatives though has always had a sporadic liberal streak (especially due to environmental and conservation policies). Democrats are aiming to reelect the flat-topped and seven-fingered Jon Tester while Republicans have fielded retired Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy. This is the definition of an uphill battle for the Democrats. I’m still calling toss-up.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin is looking good for the Democrats. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin will likely fend off businessman Eric Hovde. The latter has struggled to make a name for himself in national politics and has had a tough time resonating with Wisconsin voters. I’m saying Lean Democratic here.

Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is one of the most important in national politics. Whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the presidency—but it’s no breeze winning the state. Incumbent Bob Casey is slated against former Bush-era Treasury assistant secretary David McCormick. Casey is popular in the state and McCormick has lagged in the polls: I’m saying Lean Democratic.

Michigan: Two candidates familiar with Capitol Hill are vying to win this open seat in Michigan. Representative and former CIA aide Elissa Slotkin will face former Representative Mike Rogers in what will be a close race. Slotkin has the edge over Rogers, but anything can happen from today to election day. Michigan has made itself an interesting swing state recently due to its large Arab-American population (a group who feel disconnected from the establishment wing of the Democratic coalition). I’m saying Lean Democratic.

Maryland: Maryland is typically not a battleground state. Its Senate election this year will be interesting though: former governor Larry Hogan hopes to flip the seat against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan, who is popular among both parties, has positioned himself as a pro-choice and fiscally conservative moderate who want stick to one party. Alsobrooks is trying to paint Hogan like any other Republican as she attempts to drive out turnout in heavily Black areas such as her native Prince George’s County and Baltimore city. I’m saying Lean Democratic, but this is one to watch.

Every other seat isn’t one to worry about.

House

The House is the lower body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. The number of representatives differs per state (this is proportional representation). There are 435 representatives and all of them are elected every two years.

The House is currently in Republican control under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). But k
it’s not looking good for the ruling party. Remember, Johnson did not start this term as Speaker. In fact, he was the Vice President of the House Republican Caucus, a low-level leadership position. That very Republican caucus removed its former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy of California (remember, it took McCarthy 15+ voting rounds to become speaker in January 2023). The House was speaker-less for weeks. Johnson finally rose to power but has failed to sway the moods of concerned voters.

There’s no map for this one so I’m projecting the Democrats flip the House.

We can talk about individual races in this thread.

Governor

There aren’t too many gubernatorial races on the table. But there are a few of note:

New Hampshire: New Hampshire is looking interesting. Primaries are still to come but one thing is certain: popular Republican incumbent Chris Sununu will not be running. The Republicans will likely choose between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse. The Democrats have former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig going up against Executive Councillor Cinde Warmington. There’s more to come on this race—so I’m calling Toss-Up for now.

North Carolina: Incumbent Roy Cooper is term-limited. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein has the edge over Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. The election is looking good for the Democrats: Robinson has a really disgusting history of spewing controversial rhetoric about Jewish people, the Holocaust, the LGBTQ community, and others. I’m saying Lean Democratic.


Wow, that was longer than I expected. (In other words, Maluhia was on two planes and had nothing to do. So he cranked open Google Docs and pecked at the keyboard for a bit.)

So here’s your spot for talking politics on the forum. Let’s get started.

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My home state is the Old Dominion.

I have a Senate seat up (Tim Kaine (D, inc.) against Hung Cao (R)), and Tim is easily the favorite. Cao is a perennial candidate at this rate and has had little success. Your usual MAGA Republican.

The House seats are a lot more interesting. Briefly, the incumbent Democrats leaving are Jennifer Wexton (VA-10) and Abigail Spanberger (VA-08), the latter of whom is running for Governor in 2025. Both their seats lean Dem but it’s possible to go the other way if Glenn Youngkin, incumbent Republican Governor, campaigns a lot for the R candidates. There is also VA-02, seeing Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal face off incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans. This is a toss up, very very slight slight lean R, but it could flip (back) to D if voters take to a National Democratic abortion message.

Beyond that I wish to god that state elections would be in line with even years, not odd years.

Spanberger running for Governor has created an interesting dynamic. I hope she wins that race next year.

I know NoVA decently well and I think the Wexton seat is safe. Wexton is a true patriot for serving with PSP and it’s really awe-inspiring what she’s doing.

Missy Cotter Smasal has found her way into my inbox and sometimes her emails get annoying :pensive:

Virginia is very interesting—it’s trended farther to the left in recent years and then 2021 happened so you never know.

Yeah but Dems flipped the Senate in ‘23 (barely) so it’s still in play. I hope to see the state turn solidly blue in my life.

Glenn Youngkin is a smart politician. Virginia trended back towards the right because of him spearheading the 2021 movement. But he only serves one term so we’ll see what happens next. I am confident though in Kamala winning the state come November.

Virginia is actually flippin’ huge. You can drive seven hours from like Arlington and still be in Virginia. Drive seven hours north of Arlington…you’ll be well on your way to New England.

The regions are so different…if I was a foreigner and saw Newport News and Alexandria, I’d tell you they’re not only in different states, but different regions.

Oh for sure. I would love to check out Roanoke and Bristol, and SW VA in general, since I know it’ll be a far cry from my home of Hampton Roads.

So RFK Jr. is packing his bags and plans to endorse Trump. Let’s see if this boosts Trump.

I don’t like to put out conspiracies, but I wouldn’t be surprised if RFK Jr. was planted in the race by Trump in order to pull away votes from Biden. I mean, it was working a couple months ago when NYT polling found him near the 20% mark. But not with Harris—she’s reinvigorated the Democratic base and has closed much-needed gaps in swing states.

I remember when I learned Cheryl from Curb Your Enthusiasm was RFK Jr’s wife. :joy:

I retain an inherent skepticism of polling after 2016, but the data visualizations on this site are interesting and fun to play around with:

This election does feel a lot like 2016.

  • Female nominee for Democrats
  • Trump is the nominee for the GOP
  • Democratic veep pick is a man named ‘Tim’
  • Enthusiasm for the Democrats is really high

I do think that us Democrats are capitalizing on joy and optimism. And that’s working—hence high numbers in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. We have surprisingly solid numbers in North Carolina. We’ll really have to work to drive out the Black vote surrounding Atlanta for Georgia, and then hope that support from moderates can boost us over the finish line in the Sun Belt and Southwest.

Anything can change in ~75 days but chances for Kamala are looking good.

Same. I don’t see the utility of prediction models either. What use is being told that Harris has a 58% chance of getting at least 270 EC votes? Practically, models that can’t tell you with very high confidence who the winner will be just aren’t useful. And of course, no model will ever be able to do that.

It’s a relatively new academic field that got thrust into the mainstream by Nate Silver’s blog. But nobody in the field actually knows what they’re doing.

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Hi everyone.

We’re past Labor Day which means election season is in the final stretch. What’s happening/happened recently:

  • Harris v. Trump debate will be on Tuesday, September 10th at 9pm EST on ABC
  • Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 of the past 10 elections, says Harris will win this November
  • Dick Cheney will be voting for Harris
  • Trump scored the endorsement of former 2024 presidential candidate RFK Jr. and former Democratic Congresswoman and 2020 presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard
  • A slew of Senate polls were just released. Sherrod Brown (D) leads in Ohio by 1 point, Cruz (R) in Texas by 4, Scott (R) in Florida by 2, Slotkin (D) in Michigan by 6.

Also: “Planes commissioned by the Democratic Party flew anti-Trump banners over tailgaters at the country’s two largest college football stadiums, Michigan Stadium at the University of Michigan and Beaver Stadium at Penn State, on Saturday morning, according to the Democratic National Committee. Both schools, in battleground states, have noon football games. ESPN’s “College GameDay” is at Michigan Stadium for a tilt between Michigan and Texas.” (nytimes)

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Which prediction was wrong?

I believe it was 2000. He predicted Gore would win. That’s if I remember correctly.

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He was also wrong on Trump’s win despite everyone acclaiming him for “correctly” predicting it.

T.L.D.R.:

  • Al Gore lost the Electoral College vote, so his model was obviously predicting the popular vote winner (despite his own paper stating the opposite).
  • Donald Trump lost the popular vote, so his model was obviously predicting the Electoral College winner (despite his own paper stating the opposite).

Yes—that’s what it was!

I do think his system of keys works nicely. I watched the NYT Opinion video where he revealed his predictions, and he seemed correct about his keys.

Let’s see what happens on Election Night.

Y’all—this debate is funny.

Kamala Harris is on her A Game. She’s poking Trump in the right places and is baiting him. Man is this fun to watch.

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2016 Tulsi Gabbard was seen in such a different light compared to 2024 Tulsi Gabbard. Would add something about how the mighty have fallen, but that requires one to be mighty first. RFK is a non-issue now that’s out of the race and got swept up in brain-worm shenanigans.

I always felt like Tulsi had a weird streak. Her campaign in 2020 was odd to say the least and she stayed in the race for a bit too long. But it’s nothing like she is now.

RFK Jr. really messed up that reputation. I mean he went from leading Hudson River cleanup efforts to talking about the relation between Nazism and vaccine mandates and being eaten away by brain worms. It’s fine that he’s with Trump now. His core seemed to be anti-Biden Democrats prior to this year and of course, the big switcharoo. I think they’re happier with a younger race on the ticket—Kamala—and won’t be a maverick and join the Trump base.

But who cares anyway? The crowd Tulsi and RFK Jr attract is not the crowd that’s needed to win a presidential election. I’m fine with Trump taking the remaining Twitter (or should I say “X”) bros who post somewhat misleading content and are fervent supports of Elon Musk.

Get some big former Trump WH officials to come out and do a press conference on how dangerous Trump is and why Kamala is better. It’s why she’s better—not for a policy standpoint but just to actually save America.

TLDR I don’t give two flying shits about tulsi, RFK jR, or Elon

Do we think Harris can goad Trump into another debate?

Maybe if she proposes to do one on Fox News, otherwise I really don’t think Trump will ever accept another one.

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