American Politics Discussion 
On January, Donald John Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as President. He’ll be working alongside a Republican-controlled Congress which gives him two years to hammer through his conservative, MAGA, and what he believes to be America First political agenda.
There’s a lot of legislative nuts and bolts to unpack, but let’s first focus on personnel policy. (If you do however savor the meat and potatoes of legislative politics and enjoy watching C-SPAN like me, let’s chat!)
Policy:
- The budget: The GOP-controlled Congress is likely to slash domestic affairs spending and use those cuts to increase border security funding. They’ll also be focused on ridding the ‘DEI initiatives’ put into place by the Biden administration–albeit there aren’t too many.
- Taxation: During his first team, Trump signed into law a massive cascade of tax cuts in 2017. Key provisions from that legislation are set to expire this year. Trump will expand his tax-cutting resume by potentially trimming corporate or individual taxes and slashing tax on tips, Social Security income, or overtime pay.
- Deregulation: Trump will take a laissez-faire approach to regulation. He’ll lax energy and environmental regulations and minimize framework in the crypto industry.
- Energy and the environment: Trump will likely withdraw once again from the Paris Climate Accords, terminate offshore wind projects, and shift back to a mass extraction of oil and gas on federal lands. The energy tax credits in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will also likely be done for.
- Defense spending: The Republican principle of peace through strength will be mashed with Trump’s America First vision, leading to an all-but-certain increase in defense spending. On the topic of defense, Republicans will also make it their priority to roll back diversity, equity, and inclusion measures which, according to conservatives, are widespread in the Defense department.
- Foreign affairs: There are quite a few conflicts Trump’s national security team will be monitoring. China has been condemned by both sides of the aisle and Trump’s circle hope to stir up bipartisan support as they focus on China’s role in trade policy, border security and fentanyl, and military advancements in the South China Sea. Heading northward, Trump is urging both Zelensky and Putin to end their ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Trump will likely cease military aid to Ukraine. With the ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, Trump hopes he won’t have to bat an eye to the Middle East apart from national security concerns surrounding Iran. He’ll use the American-Saudi alliance to deter Iran.
- Tarrifs: Trump plans to institute a massive tarrif programs which include a 10% tarrif on all US imports and up to a 60% tarrif on Chinese products. Both of these proponents violate American treaty commitments.
- Immigration: Trump plans to institute the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in American history. He’ll want the National Guard and local law enforcement agencies to aid his deporation efforts, but this is unlikely to happen sans a legal violation. Beyond that, the number of legal refugees will lower year by year. He’ll want to end the DACA program and it’s unclear his stance on work permit visas.
Personnel: This won’t be an exhaustive list, but just some folks to look out for.
- Marco Rubio, top diplomat: The Florida senator is the designee for secretary of state, and will likely draw bipartisan support during his confirmation vote. He’s well-liked by his Democratic colleagues and is the epitome of ‘kissing the Trump ring’: Trump successfully peddled him as ‘Little Marco’ during the 2016 presidential primaries. Now he’s in a senior Cabinet position.
- Pete Hegseth, military chief: Hegseth, the weekend host of Fox and Friends, is Trump’s pick for Defense secretary. Hegseth is struggling to garner support from Senators over a troubling history of domestic violence accusations, drinking issues, and financial mismanagement. If confirmed, he’s slated to lead an organization of three million. But the manager at your local Applebees has managed more people than Pete Hegseth ever has. But now Hegseth’s the pick for SecDef.
- Robert Kennedy Jr., health policy lead: The graceful line of Kennedys is over. Bobby has broken out, and the raspy-voiced environmental lawyer-turned-anti-vaccine advocate and conspiracy theorist is Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary. Trump wants Kennedy to “go wild” on health policy–this could include eliminating the fluoridation of water (he claims this lowers kids’ IQs) and scrapping vaccine mandates. Kennedy, who ran for president in 2024 under the Democratic line and eventually as an Independent, is one of the most troubled nominees in terms of senatorial confirmability.
- Tulsi Gabbard, national intelligence director: Gabbard, the former Democratic Hawaii congresswoman is the pick for director of national intelligence. She’s done quite the 360 from defending democratic socialist Bernie Sanders to supporting Donald Trump. She’s raised concerns over her eerie ties to Syria and will likely struggle to win the support of Senators.
- Elon Musk, de facto president and government efficiency head honcho: Is Donald Trump president or is Elon Musk president? The Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter chief has grown oddly close to Trump in recent days and is seen as one of his closest and most well-known advisors. Musk is leading a newly-created government efficiency panel named the ‘Department of Government Efficiency.’ With a massive social media following and growing reputation, he’s seen as the shadow president.
- Susie Wiles, ice baby: Susie Wiles is slated to become the White House’s chief of staff, but to Trump, she’ll always be known as ice baby. Wiles is seen as the mastermind behind Trump’s political comeback, and previously was a senior operative in the Florida state political circle, aiding Governor Ron DeSantis. She’ll be the first woman to hold the important chief of staff role.
- Tom Homan, border czar: Tom Homan, the former acting director of the Information and Customs Enforcement during the first Trump administration, will return to Washington and serve as the White House’s border czar. He’ll be leading the charge behind Trump’s planned mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
Edition 2: A Triumphant Trump Trumped Harris
It’s over, folks. Donald Trump is returning to the White House. And he plans to be ten times more effective and efficient than his first go around.
Edition 1: It's Election Time
Whether you like it or not, election season is now in full swing. Nominees have been finalized and their running mates have been tapped. Pollsters are collecting data, pundits are scouring through said data, candidates are campaigning, and voters are deciding what their ballots will look like come November.
So yes, it’s that time of the year again. Your inbox probably feels cluttered: it’s actively being littered by political groups and campaigns asking for $15. It’s in fact not the most wonderful time of the year but it surely is an interesting one.
Here is some more info about the upcoming elections:
President
It’s Vice President Kamala Harris versus former President Donald Trump.
The race made a series of dramatic turns in July: Trump narrowly survived a harrowing assassination attempt just days before incumbent commander-in-chief Joe Biden stepped aside and passed the torch to Harris.
Before Biden stepped aside, the election map was not looking good for Democrats. Voters were concerned with Biden’s age and declining mental state. Some were angered by rising prices and some by his handling of diplomatic issues in the Middle East. On the other hand, Trump was rising in the polls by capitalizing on the anger with the economy. In June, the two nominees met for a debate. It was an absolute disaster. Biden’s aging was on prime display.
Now it’s July. Biden had been pressured to step aside for weeks. Then, unexpectedly, a bullet grazed Trump’s ear at a Pennsylvania rally. He survived. The assasination attempt galvanized his supporters and made Trump himself look like a hero.
Days later, Trump selects his running mate. It’s Ohio senator JD Vance. The bearded-Ohioan made his name through the book industry, where he is known for inking Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir of his childhood. Before the Trump presidency (around the time his book was published), Vance was a harsh critic of Trump, even calling him “America’s Hitler.” He became an instant favorite of liberals, though wasn’t too popular among Appalachians (the region that raised him that he also trashes in his memoir). Two years ago, Vance was tapped to run for U.S. Senate in Ohio and immediately flip-flopped to become one of Trump’s most fervent cheerleaders. It did him good—now he’s the nominee for vice president with the grand old party, hoping to reach one of the most-coveted yet unimportant offices in politics: the vice presidency.
Momentum for Trump was high.
Days after Vance was announced as VP, Biden announces he’ll be stepping aside in a primetime address to the nation. Kamala Harris rose to prominence as Biden’s successor. The former U.S. Senator and prosecutor reinvigorated the Democratic base, making crucial gains with Black voters (an historically important Democratic constituency that had gone lukewarm on Biden). The race felt completely different.
Two weeks later, Harris tapped little-known Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The energetic Walz became an immediate favorite among the Democratic establishment—the Nebraska native and Minnesota transplant was the perfect candidate to court moderate voters. Walz gave off the aura of a passionate Midwestern dad (a great characteristic to balance Harris’ San Francisco and “elite” look). The race had certainly changed.
And now we’re here. So to cap this long (and probably boring) chunk of writing, here’s my prediction map for election night.
Senate
The Senate is the upper body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. There are two Senators from each state (regardless of size or population). Senators are elected to six-year terms.
The Senate map is not looking good for Democrats. They’ll have to defend a number of the regular toss-up seats alongside three other ones which are in states Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.
Let’s take a look:
Races to watch:
West Virginia: This ruby-red state has an open senatorial seat, and it’ll very likely flip to Republican control. Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin passed on reelection. Jim Justice, the state’s Republican governor, will likely cruise to a win (alongside his bulldog companion) against Wheeling mayor and Democratic nominee Glenn Elliott. I’m saying (very) Likely Republican.
Ohio: This race will be extremely challenging for Democrats. Ohio has trended conservative over the past few years. JD Vance, as the Republican veep pick, will probably drive out turnout for conservative causes in the Rust Belt state. Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is popular among his Ohioan peers, but it may not be enough. Let’s see if he can outshine his businessman opponent of Bernie Moreno by embracing the usual pro-worker and pro-union message that always works in Ohio. I’m calling Toss-Up.
Nevada: Incumbent Jacky Rosen will face U.S. Army veteran and entrepreneur Sam Brown. Brown, who received the Purple Heart award for his military service, has a solid chance to unseat Rosen as Nevada slowly trends towards the Republican side. Harry Reid’s Democratic legacy in Nevada is over and the state is starting enjoy more conservative stances on policy. I’m saying toss-up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this leans Republican. We’ll see.
Montana: The state has traditionally favored conservatives though has always had a sporadic liberal streak (especially due to environmental and conservation policies). Democrats are aiming to reelect the flat-topped and seven-fingered Jon Tester while Republicans have fielded retired Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy. This is the definition of an uphill battle for the Democrats. I’m still calling toss-up.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is looking good for the Democrats. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin will likely fend off businessman Eric Hovde. The latter has struggled to make a name for himself in national politics and has had a tough time resonating with Wisconsin voters. I’m saying Lean Democratic here.
Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is one of the most important in national politics. Whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the presidency—but it’s no breeze winning the state. Incumbent Bob Casey is slated against former Bush-era Treasury assistant secretary David McCormick. Casey is popular in the state and McCormick has lagged in the polls: I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Michigan: Two candidates familiar with Capitol Hill are vying to win this open seat in Michigan. Representative and former CIA aide Elissa Slotkin will face former Representative Mike Rogers in what will be a close race. Slotkin has the edge over Rogers, but anything can happen from today to election day. Michigan has made itself an interesting swing state recently due to its large Arab-American population (a group who feel disconnected from the establishment wing of the Democratic coalition). I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Maryland: Maryland is typically not a battleground state. Its Senate election this year will be interesting though: former governor Larry Hogan hopes to flip the seat against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan, who is popular among both parties, has positioned himself as a pro-choice and fiscally conservative moderate who want stick to one party. Alsobrooks is trying to paint Hogan like any other Republican as she attempts to drive out turnout in heavily Black areas such as her native Prince George’s County and Baltimore city. I’m saying Lean Democratic, but this is one to watch.
Every other seat isn’t one to worry about.
House
The House is the lower body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. The number of representatives differs per state (this is proportional representation). There are 435 representatives and all of them are elected every two years.
The House is currently in Republican control under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). But k
it’s not looking good for the ruling party. Remember, Johnson did not start this term as Speaker. In fact, he was the Vice President of the House Republican Caucus, a low-level leadership position. That very Republican caucus removed its former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy of California (remember, it took McCarthy 15+ voting rounds to become speaker in January 2023). The House was speaker-less for weeks. Johnson finally rose to power but has failed to sway the moods of concerned voters.
There’s no map for this one so I’m projecting the Democrats flip the House.
We can talk about individual races in this thread.
Governor
There aren’t too many gubernatorial races on the table. But there are a few of note:
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is looking interesting. Primaries are still to come but one thing is certain: popular Republican incumbent Chris Sununu will not be running. The Republicans will likely choose between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse. The Democrats have former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig going up against Executive Councillor Cinde Warmington. There’s more to come on this race—so I’m calling Toss-Up for now.
North Carolina: Incumbent Roy Cooper is term-limited. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein has the edge over Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. The election is looking good for the Democrats: Robinson has a really disgusting history of spewing controversial rhetoric about Jewish people, the Holocaust, the LGBTQ community, and others. I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Wow, that was longer than I expected. (In other words, Maluhia was on two planes and had nothing to do. So he cranked open Google Docs and pecked at the keyboard for a bit.)
So here’s your spot for talking politics on the forum. Let’s get started.
