Note
This is the second part of the article. For the first part, press here.
Immigration
Migration has been a divisive issue in Valkyria for years, ebbing and flowing from one end of policy to another. In the Harrison era, Valkyria saw one of its most accepting phases in the history of the nation’s immigration policy. As prime minister, Harrison welcomed more immigrants and refugees than any head of government who came before her.
For immigration rights advocates, Harrison’s leadership saw an era of policy centred around compassion and human wellbeing, factors that rarely played a role in the formulation of immigration policy at any point before her premiership. “Harrison’s handling of migration made her a great leader, but it also cost her dearly,” University of Ravneby sociology professor Marleena Ryynänen told the VKS.
The price Harrison paid was exacted in the 2019 general election, when the Alliance she led was defeated by the Coalition and crushed under an anti-immigration wave. For people like those in The New Right, their newfound power in 2019 enabled them to impose one of the strictest immigration regimes in the South Pacific, even leading to a refugee moratorium that has been in place for nearly five years.
Even though the Alliance returned to government in 2022, the coalition agreement between the parties made no mention of reversing the Coalition’s immigration policies. The Populist Left, the third-largest party in the Alliance, would hear none of it about changing course on immigration and reverting back to Harrison era policy.
And so, Bennett played the role of a reluctant sceptic of immigration, placating for the needs of the Populist Left, a party that could single-handedly bring down the government if he ran afoul of their needs. Only after the Immigration Court forced the government’s hands on Jakubian and Romordian refugees and a heated two-day debate did the Populist Left lift a finger, providing a narrow exception to the moratorium.
Despite the resistance from the Populist Left, the rest of the Alliance have spoken favourably of immigration. Labour leader Avianna Aldridge, a close friend of Harrison, has repeatedly lobbied the Alliance to reimplement the Harrison era immigration policy, a position endorsed by the Greens and Pirates.
In May, the Valkyrian people will vote in Referendum Day, and one of the proposals is a vote on ending the refugee moratorium four months earlier than the 25 September deadline. Recent polling conducted by the VKS shows that the proposal, Referendum 15, is likely to pass if current support holds.
Despite that, Populist Left leader Shaw is expected to hold the party line on immigration scepticism. Compared to other left-wing voters, the Populist Left draws their support from a more rural and agrarian segment of the Valkyrian population who harbour sceptical views toward immigration.
For Bennett or any left-wing leader to hold on to the premiership, there is almost no way they can accomplish that without the Populist Left’s support. And with a right-wing bloc that cannot govern without The New Right, there is little appetite for a shift in policy on either side, notwithstanding a coalition of the centre, something almost unheard of in Valkyrian politics.
The environment
Despite being an oil producing country for decades and reaping the profits thereof, Valkyrians have grown increasingly concerned about the threat that climate change poses. After Harrison became the prime minister in 2016, Valkyria stopped opening new refineries and began winding down its output. However, oil extraction increased again when Kaufman took over in 2019.
When the left returned to power in 2022, Bennett restarted efforts to wind down, going so far as to close one of VENR’s oil refineries in late 2023, something that had never been done before. The closure, which occurred at a refinery in the Valkyrian northern reach, was a controversial move that had been vociferously opposed by The New Right and the Northern Party.
Despite the resistance from the right, the move to scale down oil operations is supported by 53 per cent of Valkyrians, according to recent VKS polling, but those in opposition sit not too far behind at 45 per cent. VENR has plans to close two more refineries in 2025, but that outcome is contingent on the victors of the general election.
A 2023 report from the World Forum Committee for Climate and Environment stated that, while Valkyria is internally meeting its climate goals, taking its oil exports to other countries into account and the resultant carbon emissions make Valkyria “woefully insufficient” in efforts toward carbon neutrality. The closure of Valkyrian oil refineries and further reductions in extraction would help in global efforts to halt climate change.
Climatologists such as University of Gullkysten professor Kyrre Dahlstrøm have stated that Valkyria has become more susceptible to drought and wildfires because of climate change. The 2022–2023 summer in Valkyria produced a particularly violent spate of wildfires that proved difficult for firefighters to contain. With climate change worsening, Valkyria may see even stronger fires develop.
The ferocity of these wildfires saw the national government pass legislation in 2018 that banned the use of combustible material in new buildings, requiring the use of fireproof or fire-resistant material instead. The move saw construction costs rise, but several environmentalist groups have stated that it is a necessary cost to bear in the face of stronger, more intense wildfires.
However, political efforts toward minimising the threat of wildfires has come at loggerheads with Valrissi religious customs. After a funeral pyre in the Valkyrian northern reach sparked a wildfire in 2021, Valkyria has been divided on whether to halt the practice of pyres during funerary ceremonies. As a half-measure, the storting passed a law in 2022 that established a minimum distance between pyres and forests, shrub, and other combustible vegetation.
The continued use of pyres has also come into question as it relates to its own carbon emissions and health risks. At the height of the GID-20 pandemic, pyres were frequently lit because of the growing number of deaths related to the outbreak, harming the air quality in Valkyria and neighbouring nations because of the smoke.
Referendum Day 2024
When Valkyria started holding annual referendums in 2017, Referendum Day has turned out to be a day when leftist proposals, more likely than not, win at the ballot box. While the first Referendum Day led to mixed results for the left, they have been dominant in the years that have followed. If recent polling is any indication, 2024 is no exception.
On 5 May 2024, the Valkyrian people will participate in the eighth Referendum Day, which will feature the most questions on a single ballot in the history of the vote. With 15 questions on the 2024 ballot, this Referendum Day will surpass the 2021 iteration of the vote, which asked 11 questions.
| No. | Issue | Type of amendment | Recent polling |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationalise pharmacies | Jarlskona constitutional | Yes +15 |
| 2 | Nationalise pharmaceuticals except recreational | Jarlskona constitutional | Yes +13 |
| 3 | Nationalise banks except credit unions | Jarlskona constitutional | Yes +4 |
| 4 | Nationalise steel companies | Jarlskona constitutional | Yes +2 |
| 5 | Allow constituent assemblies | Jarlskona constitutional | Yes +2 |
| 6 | Constitutionalise currently legal drugs | Legislative constitutional | Yes +8 |
| 7 | Establish public auto insurance | Legislative constitutional | Yes +10 |
| 8 | Establish government subsidies for media | Legislative constitutional | Yes +4 |
| 9 | Legalise establishment of casinos | Popular constitutional | No +22 |
| 10 | Legalise extradition of Valkyrians | Popular constitutional | No +11 |
| 11 | Storting cannot change popular amendments | Popular constitutional | Yes +22 |
| 12 | Abolish conscription | Popular constitutional | Yes +1 |
| 13 | Legalise MDMA use in pyschotherapy | Legislative statutory | No +2 |
| 14 | Impose a tax on cryptocurrency and NTFs | Legislative statutory | Yes +4 |
| 15 | Repeal refugee moratorium | Popular statutory | Yes +8 |
According to recent polling conducted by the VKS, the Alliance is getting favourable results on nearly all of the referendums. Even on the ones that are not going in their favour, the polling shows victory within the margin of error. The results of Referendum Day 2024 could see Valkyria drift further left than it has ever been in its history, and the voters will be the catalyst for the shift.
Nearly two years into the most left-wing government in Valkyrian history, the march to the left appears unimpeded. With Referendum Day 2024 a month away, the polling on these referendums could not be more unfavourable for right-wing parties such as the Conservatives and Centrist Democrats. However, the Coalition appears to have split on the issue of nationalisation, with national conservative parties such as The New Right and the Northern Party calling on their voters to support the jarlskona’s nationalisation proposals.
Ever since the Coalition’s defeat in the 2022 general election, the two largest national conservative parties in Valkyria have moved away from liberal economics and toward state capitalism. Without a unified right-wing opposition to the nationalisation proposals, Valkyrian pharmacies, pharmaceuticals, banks, and steel companies are facing down a future that may be the same as the transport, energy, and housing industries before them.
Party positions on Referendum Day 2024
The governing left-wing Alliance are nearly unanimously united on the Referendum Day proposals. The only outliers were the Pirates’ support for casino legalisation and the Populist Left’s neutrality on repealing the refugee moratorium. If their supporters show up as they did in the previous general election and side with their parties, there is no question how Referendum Day will turn out.
With the general election a year away, May’s Referendum Day will be a bellwether of what could come in 2025. Depending on how each of the referendums fare, the result could represent a victory for either of the blocs.
