American Politics Discussion 
Whether you like it or not, election season is now in full swing. Nominees have been finalized and their running mates have been tapped. Pollsters are collecting data, pundits are scouring through said data, candidates are campaigning, and voters are deciding what their ballots will look like come November.
So yes, it’s that time of the year again. Your inbox probably feels cluttered: it’s actively being littered by political groups and campaigns asking for $15. It’s in fact not the most wonderful time of the year but it surely is an interesting one.
Here is some more info about the upcoming elections:
President
It’s Vice President Kamala Harris versus former President Donald Trump.
The race made a series of dramatic turns in July: Trump narrowly survived a harrowing assassination attempt just days before incumbent commander-in-chief Joe Biden stepped aside and passed the torch to Harris.
Before Biden stepped aside, the election map was not looking good for Democrats. Voters were concerned with Biden’s age and declining mental state. Some were angered by rising prices and some by his handling of diplomatic issues in the Middle East. On the other hand, Trump was rising in the polls by capitalizing on the anger with the economy. In June, the two nominees met for a debate. It was an absolute disaster. Biden’s aging was on prime display.
Now it’s July. Biden had been pressured to step aside for weeks. Then, unexpectedly, a bullet grazed Trump’s ear at a Pennsylvania rally. He survived. The assasination attempt galvanized his supporters and made Trump himself look like a hero.
Days later, Trump selects his running mate. It’s Ohio senator JD Vance. The bearded-Ohioan made his name through the book industry, where he is known for inking Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir of his childhood. Before the Trump presidency (around the time his book was published), Vance was a harsh critic of Trump, even calling him “America’s Hitler.” He became an instant favorite of liberals, though wasn’t too popular among Appalachians (the region that raised him that he also trashes in his memoir). Two years ago, Vance was tapped to run for U.S. Senate in Ohio and immediately flip-flopped to become one of Trump’s most fervent cheerleaders. It did him good—now he’s the nominee for vice president with the grand old party, hoping to reach one of the most-coveted yet unimportant offices in politics: the vice presidency.
Momentum for Trump was high.
Days after Vance was announced as VP, Biden announces he’ll be stepping aside in a primetime address to the nation. Kamala Harris rose to prominence as Biden’s successor. The former U.S. Senator and prosecutor reinvigorated the Democratic base, making crucial gains with Black voters (an historically important Democratic constituency that had gone lukewarm on Biden). The race felt completely different.
Two weeks later, Harris tapped little-known Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The energetic Walz became an immediate favorite among the Democratic establishment—the Nebraska native and Minnesota transplant was the perfect candidate to court moderate voters. Walz gave off the aura of a passionate Midwestern dad (a great characteristic to balance Harris’ San Francisco and “elite” look). The race had certainly changed.
And now we’re here. So to cap this long (and probably boring) chunk of writing, here’s my prediction map for election night.
Senate
The Senate is the upper body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. There are two Senators from each state (regardless of size or population). Senators are elected to six-year terms.
The Senate map is not looking good for Democrats. They’ll have to defend a number of the regular toss-up seats alongside three other ones which are in states Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.
Let’s take a look:
Races to watch:
West Virginia: This ruby-red state has an open senatorial seat, and it’ll very likely flip to Republican control. Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin passed on reelection. Jim Justice, the state’s Republican governor, will likely cruise to a win (alongside his bulldog companion) against Wheeling mayor and Democratic nominee Glenn Elliott. I’m saying (very) Likely Republican.
Ohio: This race will be extremely challenging for Democrats. Ohio has trended conservative over the past few years. JD Vance, as the Republican veep pick, will probably drive out turnout for conservative causes in the Rust Belt state. Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is popular among his Ohioan peers, but it may not be enough. Let’s see if he can outshine his businessman opponent of Bernie Moreno by embracing the usual pro-worker and pro-union message that always works in Ohio. I’m calling Toss-Up.
Nevada: Incumbent Jacky Rosen will face U.S. Army veteran and entrepreneur Sam Brown. Brown, who received the Purple Heart award for his military service, has a solid chance to unseat Rosen as Nevada slowly trends towards the Republican side. Harry Reid’s Democratic legacy in Nevada is over and the state is starting enjoy more conservative stances on policy. I’m saying toss-up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this leans Republican. We’ll see.
Montana: The state has traditionally favored conservatives though has always had a sporadic liberal streak (especially due to environmental and conservation policies). Democrats are aiming to reelect the flat-topped and seven-fingered Jon Tester while Republicans have fielded retired Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy. This is the definition of an uphill battle for the Democrats. I’m still calling toss-up.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is looking good for the Democrats. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin will likely fend off businessman Eric Hovde. The latter has struggled to make a name for himself in national politics and has had a tough time resonating with Wisconsin voters. I’m saying Lean Democratic here.
Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is one of the most important in national politics. Whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the presidency—but it’s no breeze winning the state. Incumbent Bob Casey is slated against former Bush-era Treasury assistant secretary David McCormick. Casey is popular in the state and McCormick has lagged in the polls: I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Michigan: Two candidates familiar with Capitol Hill are vying to win this open seat in Michigan. Representative and former CIA aide Elissa Slotkin will face former Representative Mike Rogers in what will be a close race. Slotkin has the edge over Rogers, but anything can happen from today to election day. Michigan has made itself an interesting swing state recently due to its large Arab-American population (a group who feel disconnected from the establishment wing of the Democratic coalition). I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Maryland: Maryland is typically not a battleground state. Its Senate election this year will be interesting though: former governor Larry Hogan hopes to flip the seat against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan, who is popular among both parties, has positioned himself as a pro-choice and fiscally conservative moderate who want stick to one party. Alsobrooks is trying to paint Hogan like any other Republican as she attempts to drive out turnout in heavily Black areas such as her native Prince George’s County and Baltimore city. I’m saying Lean Democratic, but this is one to watch.
Every other seat isn’t one to worry about.
House
The House is the lower body of the nation’s bicameral legislative system. The number of representatives differs per state (this is proportional representation). There are 435 representatives and all of them are elected every two years.
The House is currently in Republican control under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). But k
it’s not looking good for the ruling party. Remember, Johnson did not start this term as Speaker. In fact, he was the Vice President of the House Republican Caucus, a low-level leadership position. That very Republican caucus removed its former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy of California (remember, it took McCarthy 15+ voting rounds to become speaker in January 2023). The House was speaker-less for weeks. Johnson finally rose to power but has failed to sway the moods of concerned voters.
There’s no map for this one so I’m projecting the Democrats flip the House.
We can talk about individual races in this thread.
Governor
There aren’t too many gubernatorial races on the table. But there are a few of note:
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is looking interesting. Primaries are still to come but one thing is certain: popular Republican incumbent Chris Sununu will not be running. The Republicans will likely choose between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse. The Democrats have former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig going up against Executive Councillor Cinde Warmington. There’s more to come on this race—so I’m calling Toss-Up for now.
North Carolina: Incumbent Roy Cooper is term-limited. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein has the edge over Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. The election is looking good for the Democrats: Robinson has a really disgusting history of spewing controversial rhetoric about Jewish people, the Holocaust, the LGBTQ community, and others. I’m saying Lean Democratic.
Wow, that was longer than I expected. (In other words, Maluhia was on two planes and had nothing to do. So he cranked open Google Docs and pecked at the keyboard for a bit.)
So here’s your spot for talking politics on the forum. Let’s get started.
